The localization rate rose to 100% this year. Can Tesla trigger 10 years of electric car gold?
Musk is destined to cause "shock" no matter where he is. Just after the start of the year in 2020, four days before the official delivery of Tesla's Shanghai factory, Tesla officially announced that the price of the domestic model 3 had been reduced from 355,800 yuan to 299,905 yuan. The 玩真钱的炸金花 was like a bomb that shocked every aspect.
At present, the localization rate of Tesla model 3 is 30%. According to the roadmap given by Tesla that will achieve 100% localization by the end of 2020, securities analysts believe that Tesla still has 27% to 34%. It is possible that the price of Tesla's model 3 will drop to 190,000 yuan by the end of this year, and such prices will cause various shocks.
Some people say that Tesla is a huge “catfish” that will quickly mature China's electric car market. Some people compare the current Tesla with Apple's entry into the Chinese market 10 years ago. Ten years ago, Apple turned on the gold of smartphones for 10 years, and the next 10 years of gold in the Chinese consumer market may be handed over to Tesla, which will lead to 10 years of golden development of electric vehicles.
Tesla, like a star company, quickly landed in China. It takes only 8 months to get the acceptance license from 0 to 0; and it takes only 12 months to get it from 0 to formal delivery. Tesla has created new speeds, from the time of delivery to the price of fast grounding. It should be said that the arrival of Tesla's "whirlwind" will accelerate the rapid maturity of the Chinese electric vehicle market and industrial ecology.
With the advent of each new era of consumption, it seems that a star company that "integrates fashion, new experience, speed and influence" is needed to inspire the market. Apple is such a company, and Tesla also has such characteristics. At present, China is the world's largest electric vehicle market. On December 3, 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" (draft for comments) (hereinafter referred to as the "draft for comments"). It is proposed that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in China will account for about 25%. To achieve such a goal requires the market to have greater acceptance of electric vehicles, a better environment for electric vehicle infrastructure, and a richer and more diverse electric vehicle supplier.
The arrival of Tesla can bring the "electric vehicle is a fashion" effect, affecting people's shift from "oil and gas" to "electric" consumption, and can accelerate the rapid development of electric vehicle infrastructure, including charging piles. Construction. On December 20, 2019, Tesla completed the 300th supercharging station in mainland China. So far, its supercharging station has covered more than 140 cities, the number of supercharging piles has exceeded 2,300, and the destination charging pile has also Over 2100. In 2020, Tesla expects to add 300 supercharging stations in mainland China. This number is the total number of supercharging stations built in mainland China in the past few years.
Another impact that Tesla brings is suppliers. Tesla's development in China will mature its supplier ecological chain. Tesla's supply chain includes powertrain systems, electric drive systems, charging, chassis, bodywork, other components, central control systems, interior and exterior trims, and more than 100 direct and indirect suppliers. At present, the localization rate of Tesla model 3's components is only about 30%. If its localization rate reaches 100%, its supplier ecological chain will definitely benefit greatly. Because of this, these days, the stock prices of listed companies in the industry chain have skyrocketed because of Tesla's Shanghai factory delivery and Tesla's price reduction.
The maturity of an industrial ecological chain requires strong pull from leading enterprises. In fact, at present, Tesla still depends on a considerable part of overseas suppliers. For example, Tesla's core lithium battery pack is currently manufactured by Panasonic, and the supplier of cathode materials and separators is Sumitomo Chemical. The supplier of the material is Hitachi Chemical Japan, and the electrolyte is produced by Mitsubishi Chemical Japan. If these parts are localized, the rapid development of Chinese suppliers in these areas will inevitably be accelerated.
In addition to the maturity of the ecological chain of electric vehicle upstream suppliers, in addition to the upstream suppliers themselves benefiting, while developing more competitive electric vehicle supporting companies, it will definitely benefit China's electric vehicle industry development. The development of Apple and its ecological chain is the best example. Today we see that Chinese brands of mobile phones including Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, etc. have not only succeeded in China, but have also started to gain more and more reputation in overseas markets. The success of these Chinese mobile phone manufacturers is also inseparable from the growth and maturity of many mobile phone ecological chain companies behind them. And the growth and maturity of an ecological chain requires leading enterprises to have strong integration capabilities and pulling power. In fact, before 2011, China already had a huge mobile phone supporting ecological chain and a number of mobile phone brand companies, but from the perspective of technological level and ecological supply capacity, there was no strong competitiveness, which also led to these domestic mobile phones. Brands are not an important reason for the popularity of the mobile phone market. With the entry of Apple, because of Apple ’s strong integration capabilities with suppliers, the technological level of these upstream suppliers has leapt to a new level, and also laid the foundation for the later rise of Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo.
From these perspectives, Musk and Tesla are more like a "catfish", which will further activate the ecological market of China's electric vehicle industry and accelerate the development of China's electric vehicle industry. With Tesla's "ferocious" catfish, whether China's electric vehicle manufacturers can develop into competitive "quick fish" like Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo, it will take time to give an answer.