"Core" trend in 2020, read this article is enough!
Editor's note: Since 2019, new technologies and new applications in the electronic information industry have emerged endlessly. Some new breakthroughs make us extremely proud. Facing 2020, what are the hot spots in the electronic information industry worth looking forward to? From this issue, this 玩真钱的炸金花paper has launched a series of reports looking forward to new trends in the development of electronic information industry hotspots such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence and new displays.
In the first quarter of 2019, a reporter from China Electronics News interviewed many people in the semiconductor industry. Everyone said that after a few years of high growth, global semiconductors began to fall, and the "coldness" that fell down will fade in 2020. " warm". Time always passes quickly, and in 2020, will the semiconductor market really "warm up" this year? What market highlights will ignite the "core" fire? How should companies plan? Change with time, knowers follow the system ", then which are the" time "and" event "of the semiconductor industry this year?
Warming will be the main tone?
"The semiconductor market will recover overall in 2020, and CCID Consulting is expected to grow by about 10%." Han Xiaomin, General Manager of CCID Consulting Integrated Circuit Research Center, gave the semiconductor industry 2020 in an interview with China Electronics News. Warm tone of the year. Zhao Tiansheng, chairman of Zhongtian Hongyu Integrated Circuits Co., expressed the same judgment in an interview with China Electronics News: The market will be warm.
Some people say that the reason for the decline in the semiconductor market last year was because of "storage" and "mining machines", which fell after a few years of hurricane "crazy growth". Zhao Yunsheng said that the semiconductor market last year was not too "cold". The market's decline time was very short. Only the first quarter of 2019 fell slightly, but it has recovered in the second quarter, including SMIC, Shanghai Huahong was soon full.
The reason why the semiconductor market is warm in 2020 is that Han Xiaomin believes that there are several influencing factors: first, of course, due to the sharp decline in the market in 2019, the base has become smaller; second, the bulk semiconductor products represented by memory have experienced a long period of price decline After that, it is expected to enter a new round of price increase cycle in the second quarter of 2020, driving the entire market to rise. Finally, the most fundamental point is that the progress of 5G construction is faster than expected, and the 5G terminal distribution is also larger than previously expected, becoming the main driving force for the recovery of the semiconductor market in 2020.
Zhao Yisheng believes that there are two reasons for this. One is application-driven. China's 5G, artificial intelligence, blockchain and other applications will be gradually promoted in 2020. The gradual promotion of these applications will lead to the growth of demand in the semiconductor industry. The second is the release of capacity. After two to three years of research and development, plant construction and new plant construction, production capacity will gradually be released in 2020 and 2021. According to the learned situation, the current production lines of each plant are basically in full production.
5G, consumer electronics "traction" market
Regarding the market highlights in 2020, almost all interviewees mentioned the 5G, automotive electronics and consumer electronics markets. And 5G is the first keyword.
CCID think tank predicts that with the further opening of the terminal market in 2020, the demand for key components such as 5G baseband chips and RF chips will increase sharply. In terms of segmentation, in order to reduce terminal volume and improve terminal power consumption, 5G terminal baseband The chip will continue to develop towards a highly integrated Soc chip. At the same time, the overall form of 5G terminals will gradually be enriched, and the construction of a full-scene ecological environment will stimulate a significant increase in the market size. With the support of new features such as 5G large bandwidth, low latency, high reliability, and massive connections, as well as the gradual construction and improvement of a new ecology, 5G terminal forms and device types will continue to grow, and the terminal device market size will appear new in 2020. A round of growth.
For the "high probability" hot market in 2020, Han Xiaomin said: "The first is still related to the 5G industry, and it is expected that it will perform better than expected in 2020, especially in the innovation of 5G terminals. The second is the automotive industry, overall It seems that the overall recovery of the automotive market is not likely. The greater possibility is the growth and changes in the field of electric vehicles. With targeted measures in accordance with the city, coupled with Tesla's localized "catfish effect", domestic electric vehicles Car companies will shift from To B business that used to be “King Shan is King” to real market-oriented competition. The third is the consumer electronics market. From Bluetooth speakers the previous year to TWS headsets last year, the consumer electronics market is in “explosive products” Driven by rapid development. We expect that in the 2020 consumer electronics market, it is unlikely that national explosive products such as TWS headsets will appear again. At present, it seems that smart watches and AR / VR products do not have such capabilities. It is a relatively balanced situation in the consumer electronics market. "
Zhao Yansheng believes that in addition to 5G, artificial intelligence and blockchain applications, independent research and development will become a bright spot along with breakthroughs in basic materials and new processes. "In the past, many users used foreign products, and now they gradually adopt similar domestic products. At the same time, the development of basic materials and technical processes will continue to emerge. The entire industry has started to sink. The original industry focused only on applications, like building high-rise buildings on the beach. Now everyone is starting to focus on basic R & D and basic materials. This trend will become a bright spot in the next few years. "
Zhaoyi Innovation is one of the beneficiary companies of the TWS industry chain of "explosive" products in 2019 mentioned by Han Xiaomin. TWS needs to use NOR Flash. When a reporter from "China Electronics News" interviewed Meng Jinghua, director of Zhaoyi Innovation's Flash BU market, and asked him to determine which other areas may have explosive products this year, Meng Jinghua did not give a definitive answer, but said that the promotion and development of 5G will break The limitations of application scenarios have spawned more applications and products. In addition, the popularity of AI requires more sensors. After the data is collected by the sensors, local operations must be performed. This algorithm needs to be stored in Flash. The overall demand for Flash will continue to grow in the future, but not necessarily explosive. For example, wearable products will continue to increase in the future. In the interview, Meng Jinghua also mentioned that the future automotive electronics will be a very important market.
How do companies change because of "time" and "event"?
Regarding the technology trends in 2020 and the focus of corporate development, Zhou Peng, deputy dean of the School of Microelectronics at Fudan University, told a reporter from China Electronics News that, in short, dedicated and diversified chips will receive more attention, and "Integrated" chips will emerge suddenly, materials and equipment technology still need to work hard, advanced technology should continue to strengthen research and development.
The huge demand for data storage and computing makes “integration of storage and computing” a hot word for the beginning of 2020. Among the top ten technology trends of 2020 just released by Ali Dharma Academy, “integration of storage and computing will break the bottleneck of computing power” Ranked second in the trend.
Yin Shouyi, professor of Tsinghua University, said that when reviewing the development of integrated circuits, the development speed of memory chips is much lower than the development speed of processor chips. The gap between the two is still widening, and the storage wall has become a constraint on processor performance. One of the main bottlenecks for further improvement. This problem has the most obvious impact on memory-intensive tasks, and AI algorithms represented by deep neural networks have exactly the characteristics of memory-intensive. From a physical point of view, reducing the distance between computing components and storage components and reducing the cost of unit data handling is a fundamental way to solve the problem of storage walls. Near-memory calculation, in-memory calculation, and in-memory fusion are all beneficial attempts to solve the storage wall problem. In recent years, related technologies have blossomed in popularity and a hundred schools of thought contend, which are still pre-competitive technologies. Breakthroughs in new devices, new mechanisms, new circuits, and new architectures are expected to bring disruptive changes.
The Dharma Institute believes that modularity will further reduce the design threshold, which is also the "core" trend in 2020.
Bao Yungang, a research fellow at the Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that looking at the development of processor design methods, it is a process of constantly modularizing and decoupling processor chip designs. Each change in design method has greatly improved design efficiency, not only lowered the chip design threshold, but also gave birth to a new world-class leader. For example, the Fabless model in 1980 decoupled design and manufacturing and lowered the design threshold, which gave birth to companies such as nVidia, Xilinx; the "IP core + SoC integration" model is a further step in the chip design phase Decoupling gave birth to a number of world-class companies such as ARM and Qualcomm.
Nowadays, a series of new chip design methods and models such as open source chips, agile design, and chiplet have begun to develop rapidly and merge with each other to form a chemical reaction. It is expected to further decouple the chip design in the future, improve the reuse of chip modules and shorten the chip Design cycle, reducing chip design costs. In the future, when the threshold of chip design is reduced by orders of magnitude, it will be possible to subvert the IT development model. Once software engineers develop new software functions through several months, the chip design engineer can quickly achieve the corresponding acceleration chip, thus forming More efficient software and hardware collaboration solution. The lowering of the chip design threshold will also help the cultivation of talents, help to release the innovation activity of the chip industry, attract more capital investment, and thereby prosper the entire industry.
For semiconductor companies, technological innovation and change will always be the main theme. As Meng Jinghua said when talking about the changes in TWS demand, TWS users focus on better comfort and longer standby time. For NOR Flash, it needs smaller size and lower power consumption. To achieve these two points, we must move towards more advanced processes and achieve more technological breakthroughs.
In addition to technological innovation and change, building software ecosystems and focusing on requirements are also keywords. Han Xiaomin said: "In 2020, for the leading companies participating in the 5G core market, they are facing the largest R & D investment, the strongest competitors and the most complicated trading environment. They are strengthening R & D investment and continuously improving their own At the same time of technological product capabilities, more attention should be paid to cooperation with international partners. For companies participating in a wider range of other application markets, stronger support for end users and the construction of the surrounding software ecosystem are dimensions that need more attention. "
Zhao Yisheng believes that the first is to make up for lessons. Strengthen investment in research and development of basic theory, basic materials, basic processes, and basic equipment. The domestic semiconductor industry lags far behind in the global scope. It is not possible to achieve a comprehensive surpass in a short period of time, but it is still possible to make breakthroughs in some points and certain fields, which can be gradually strengthened with points. The second is to focus on the market and customer needs, and carry out application promotion work. R & D is not for R & D. R & D ultimately has to be paid for by the market, paid for by the application, and made by the basic components. Finally, it can only be sold in conjunction with market applications.
Whether the market is driven by demand or created by technological innovation is a question of "chicken and egg" and "egg and chicken". We are in the midst of a huge torrent of data economy, and there will be market ups and downs, but this market is large enough and full of variables, and those who are good at chasing waves will always stand on different "tides". According to IDC's forecast, the total global data is expected to reach 45,000 EB in 2020. 50% of trade in services and 12% of trade in goods have been digitized. Under such a background, there are numerous market opportunities and countless “explosive” "Since every corner of the digital economy era cannot be separated from the" core ", there must be a" core ". Taking 5G as an example, according to CCID think tank, from 2020 to 2025, China's 5G development will directly drive total economic output of 10.6 trillion yuan and directly create economic added value of 3.3 trillion yuan. Here are "cores" everywhere opportunity. So semiconductor companies bravely walk out of their comfort zone, open their arms and embrace the new wave of digital economy in 2020.